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The bitmap resolution was set at 150 for the JPG export. I don't remember changing that value, so it could be the default. The GIF export does not expose this setting, but once I changed it to 72 under the JPG selection, both exports now correctly produce the original size.

I had played with the scale, but I knew that wasn't the right approach, so left it set at 100%.

Thanks for the pointer to look at that setting!