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I think I found the problem: after reading in the forums about whether or not Exchange calendars sync or not, I realized I didn't have any local or iCloud calendars showing up (I only use my Exchange calendar, so I hadn't noticed before). I even couldn't create a new iCloud calendar. So I went to the iCloud website calendar, to find that I had 100+ calendars all with the same name, probably created by some weird time management app I tested a while back. It took a while to delete them all, but after that, selection of Calendars in Forecast view behaves as advertised.