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You would do wise to spend the extra money now and get an iPhone 4S. The faster 4GLTE service on it versus the 3G service on the iPhone 4 is really worth it given that you plan to hold on to your phone forever.

I have a 4GB plan on Verizon for two iPhones and a MiFi pack. I recently went to 6GB because I was away from WiFi for a long stretch and needed to use my iPhone as a hotspot. I'll probably drop back to 4GB later. So, you'd likely do very well at the 2GB level unless you plan to stream video (and certainly then you will absolutely want the 4S not the 4). You can always upgrade your data package in GB steps if you appear to go over, and Verizon gives you a good way to get warning messages via text as you approach your limit.